According to Phoenix REALTORS' September 2026 Local Market Update, Scottsdale buyers signed 40% fewer contracts than a year earlier and still closed more homes. The report shows 192 single-family pending sales in September 2026, against 321 in September 2025, a drop of 40.2%. In the same month, closed sales rose from 320 to 327 and new listings rose 2.8%.
Local coverage this month reported the 40% figure, and it is easy to see why it got attention. It looks like demand fell off sharply right as fall started. But Scottsdale's monthly reports from this summer point to something else. The newest month's contract count has been coming in low, and the next report has raised it. That changes how a buyer or seller should read the market heading into November, and it moves attention to the part of Scottsdale where conditions really are loosening.
The same report doesn't add up to 192
Each Phoenix REALTORS city report shows two pending-sales figures: the count for the month and the running year-to-date total. In 2025, the two match. The year-to-date total rises from one report to the next by exactly the monthly count. In 2026, they don't match.
Here is Scottsdale single-family, using four reports in a row:
| Month | 2025 monthly count | 2025 YTD increase | 2026 monthly count | 2026 YTD increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July | 296 | 296 | 157 | 297 |
| August | 317 | 317 | 201 | 321 |
| September | 321 | 321 | 192 | 310 |
The 2025 columns are identical. In the 2026 columns, the year-to-date total grew by about 120 to 140 more contracts than the monthly line reported, every month. Townhouses and condos show the same gap. The 2026 year-to-date increases exceeded the monthly counts by 60, 61 and 46 contracts across those same three months.
Some of those extra contracts may belong to earlier months that were added late, so the gap doesn't show exactly how many deals Scottsdale signed in September. The comparison still has a problem. The 2025 figure has had a full year to collect late entries. The 2026 figure was counted a few days after the month ended. In September, the year-to-date total grew by 310 contracts, within about 3% of the 321 counted for September 2025.
The Valley-wide numbers show the revision happening
The Greater Phoenix Monthly Indicators report goes further than the city reports. Each edition prints a 12-month history, so the same month can be compared across reports. That comparison shows how much the first count changes.
| Month | First count | Change vs. prior year | Count one report later | Change vs. prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 3,125 | down 37.1% | 4,463 | down 10.1% |
| August 2026 | 3,382 | down 34.8% | 4,644 | down 10.5% |
| September 2026 | 2,892 | down 40.1% | next report | next report |
July's count rose by 1,338 contracts between the report current as of August 3 and the one current as of September 3. The September report then listed August at 4,644, down 10.5%, after first printing it at 3,382, down 34.8%. Both times, a drop that looked like a collapse was revised a month later to a decline of about one-tenth.
The report defines a pending sale as a property on which an offer was accepted in a given month. The ARMLS Rules and Regulations, last updated May 28, 2026, give listing agents three days after the purchase agreement is fully executed to change a listing's status. They also allow some under-contract listings to use the UCB or CCBS statuses in place of Pending. The reports don't say why 2026 counts have been coming in low. Still, the pattern held in both months with a later count, and September's 40.1% drop looks like the same first-count effect.
What the revised numbers still show
A decline of about 10% is still a real decline, and the September conditions explain it. Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed average went from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.03% on September 24. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It was the Fed's first increase since July 2023.
Phoenix REALTORS board president Sammy Glassman described the effect in AZ Big Media's October 16 coverage: "Buyers and sellers are still active, but when rates keep moving, it can cause people to pause before making a major financial decision." ABC15's October 8 report called Scottsdale "the one market heating up" and added that "at the top of the market, mortgage rates just matter less." That holds for one segment of Scottsdale more than the other.
Two Scottsdale markets in one report
Scottsdale's September 2026 report splits single-family homes from townhouses and condos. The two segments moved in opposite directions on almost every measure.
Single-family, September 2026 vs. September 2025
- Median sales price rose from $1,150,000 to $1,200,000, and the year-to-date median rose 5.5% to $1,250,000.
- Months of supply fell from 4.1 to 3.7.
- Days on market fell from 90 to 80.
- Sellers received 97.2% of list price, up from 96.6%.
Townhouse and condo, September 2026 vs. September 2025
- Median sales price fell from $502,500 to $485,000.
- Months of supply rose from 5.1 to 5.7.
- Days on market rose from 96 to 109.
- Inventory grew from 925 to 1,000 units.
Single-family supply got tighter over the year, and homes sold faster. The condo and townhouse segment went the other way, with more units listed, longer sales times and a lower median price. The Scottsdale Daily Independent reported Glassman's year-to-date breakdown along the same split. The single-family median was up 5.5%, while the townhouse and condo median was down 1% to $495,000. Some north Scottsdale condo buildings, such as Atavia, sit well above that median. The citywide trend still shows where buyers have more room to negotiate.
Why the citywide median overstates gains
A second figure in the coverage needs care too. Scottsdale REALTORS' September 2026 Residential Market Report shows a median sold price of $950,000, up 9.13% over 12 months. The same page puts the median estimated property value at $864,720, up only 0.48% over 12 months and down 1.6% from the prior month. That report combines single-family homes, condos, townhouses and apartments, and it notes that some brokerages' listings may not be included.
If the median sale price rises nine points while estimated values barely move, the change mostly comes from which homes sold. With single-family homes holding up and condos slowing, a larger share of the month's closings came from the higher-priced segment. That raises the median even if a given house is worth about what it was a year ago. The same report shows median list price down 4.52% over 12 months, to $949,990. For a seller setting a price, the estimated-value trend is a better starting point than the median sale price.
Where the sale price leaves out costs
Every price in the Phoenix REALTORS city reports carries the same footnote. The figures do not account for sale concessions or down payment assistance. When rates are above 7%, that leaves out a lot. In the AZ Big Media coverage, Glassman said "affordability today is often more about the monthly payment than the purchase price alone." He described seller concessions as a way for buyers to "buy down their rate or reduce upfront costs," and for sellers "to compete more effectively, especially when resale homes are being compared with new construction."
A September single-family sale at 97.2% of list price could have come with a credit that brought the seller's net proceeds lower. Concessions are negotiated deal by deal, so buyers and sellers in both segments should expect them to be part of the offer this fall.
This post is general market information, not financial or lending advice, and anyone weighing a rate buydown or concession should talk with their lender and tax professional about their own situation.
Questions readers ask
When will September's revised contract count be available? Recent Phoenix REALTORS reports have shown a "current as of" date around the third of the following month. The October report would follow that pattern and include a second count for September.
Is the Scottsdale market slowing at all? Yes, but less than the first counts suggest. Greater Phoenix pending sales for July and August were revised to declines of about 10%, and the Fed's September increase pushed mortgage rates above 7%.
Which Scottsdale segment gives buyers more room right now? In September 2026, townhouses and condos had 5.7 months of supply and 109 days on market, compared with 3.7 months and 80 days for single-family homes.
If you're deciding when to list or how hard to negotiate on a Scottsdale home, we can go through the revised contract numbers for your property type and price range in a private consultation with Jennifer Patnode.
